University Is Still Worth It – Even If the Graduate Premium Is Changing

In response to recent reports in the media regarding the decline in public confidence in the value of a university education, HELOA Chair Keir Robinson offers his thoughts and an opportunity for discussion in the comments.

Recent reports have highlighted growing scepticism about the value of a university degree, driven in part by a shrinking graduate earnings premium and increasing concern about student debt and cost of living pressures. The implication is increasingly familiar: if a degree no longer guarantees higher earnings, is it still worth it?

It is an understandable question. Higher education is expensive in time, money and expectation. Students are right to demand clarity about outcomes, and society is right to scrutinise value for money.

But the problem is not the question itself. It is the narrowness of the answer being offered.

We have reduced one of society’s most complex institutions to a single metric: the graduate premium. And in doing so, we have started judging universities as if their only purpose is to function as a salary multiplier.

That was never the point.

The Graduate Premium Is Not the Whole Story

There is no doubt that, on average, graduates still tend to earn more than non-graduates over their lifetime. The exact size of that premium varies by subject, institution, background and labour market conditions – but it has not disappeared.

What has changed is its simplicity. The “automatic uplift” narrative no longer holds in the same way it once appeared to. Graduate outcomes are more varied, more uneven, and more sensitive to economic cycles.

But even if the premium were shrinking, it would remain only one measure of success.

If we judge universities purely through earnings, we end up with a distorted view of value. We would have to conclude that professions requiring degrees but offering modest salaries such as teachers, nurses, social workers, scientists in early careers – represent weak returns on investment. Few people genuinely believe that.

The value of these roles is not captured in pay packets alone.

Nor is the value of higher education limited to employment outcomes. Across OECD countries, higher educational attainment is associated with higher employment rates, improved health outcomes, increased life expectancy, greater civic participation, and higher levels of trust and volunteering. These are societal gains, not just individual ones.

Education does not simply increase income. It changes trajectories.

Universities as a Public Good

The deeper flaw in the current debate is the assumption that the benefits of higher education belong only to the individual.

Universities are not private assets purchased for personal financial return. They are public institutions that generate public value.

They educate the workforce that sustains essential services. They produce the research that underpins medical advances, technological innovation and environmental solutions. They support regional economies through employment, procurement, and knowledge exchange. And they act as anchor institutions in many towns and cities, stabilising local economic activity and driving long-term development.

Crucially, they also shape the kind of society we become.

More educated populations tend to be healthier, more politically engaged and more socially cohesive. These outcomes are not accidental. They reflect the compounding effects of education: improved decision-making, greater access to information, stronger communication skills, and increased confidence navigating institutions and systems.

This is why higher education is consistently treated as a cornerstone of national development strategy across advanced economies. The return is not just private, it is collective.

The Scottish Context

In Scotland, this public-good framing has long been more explicit than elsewhere.

The principle of free tuition for Scottish-domiciled students reflects a belief that access to education should be determined by ability and potential, not household income. It is a statement that higher education is not simply a private investment, but a national one.

Scottish universities play a disproportionate role in research, international collaboration and workforce development. They educate many of the professionals who sustain public services and contribute significantly to local economies across the country.

Importantly, they also function as engines of social mobility. For students from underrepresented or disadvantaged backgrounds, university can still represent a meaningful shift in opportunity, opening pathways that would otherwise be far harder to access and altering long-term life chances.

But University Is Not the Only Route

Defending universities does not require dismissing alternatives.

Scotland’s education system is strongest when it recognises diversity of routes: colleges, apprenticeships, graduate apprenticeships, workplace learning and direct entry into employment all play vital roles. Many young people thrive outside traditional university pathways, and many careers do not require a degree at all.

That is why the message shared widely across Scotland after exam results, “no wrong path” matters so much. It acknowledges reality, that success is not linear, and it is not defined by a single institution or qualification.

The goal is not to steer everyone into university. It is to ensure that each person has access to the route that best fits their skills, ambitions and circumstances.

The Real Question

The debate should therefore move away from a simplistic binary: is university “worth it” or not?

A more honest question is what kind of society we want to build.

Do we want fewer teachers, fewer nurses, fewer engineers, fewer researchers and fewer informed citizens? Do we want weaker public institutions, lower levels of innovation and reduced social mobility?

Or do we recognise that higher education, despite its imperfections and inequalities, remains one of the most effective mechanisms we have for expanding opportunity and strengthening society as a whole?

On that basis, universities cannot be reduced to a salary comparison exercise. Their value is broader, deeper and more enduring than that.

Conclusion

So, is university worth it?

If the only measure is immediate financial return, I guess this can come under scrutiny. But that has never been the right measure.

When judged by its full impact – on individuals, on communities and on society as a whole – the answer remains clear.

University is still worth it.